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2022 Masters Odds
Round three of the Masters is behind us, with Scotty Scheffler holding a three-shot lead at 9-under after shooting 71 on Saturday at Augusta National. Now, we’re looking forward to Sunday’s fourth round, which features plenty of support angles to attack the PrizePicks.
I mentioned in my first round analysis how iron play and scramble are the two biggest predictors of success in Augusta based on data from past champions. It should be used to narrow down the best selections for this tournament.
We saw this trend take effect last year, with defending champion Hideki Matsuyama finishing fourth in strokes earned: the approach, fifth in the SG: around the green, second in the SG: teeing to the green and sixth in the scramble.
Below, I summarize my five flexplays from the Fourth Round PrizePicks. For those unfamiliar with the flexible play of PrizePicks in golf, different combinations of overs/unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, getting five of five correct records payout 12.5x; Four out of five correctly score a 2x payout; And three out of five report a 0.4x return.
Justin Thomas: under 71.5 strokes
I pressed a jamb in round 3, and I’m going back to the well again. Thomas sits sixth at 1-lower after Saturday’s 72.
A few of JT’s quadrupeds caused some problems on Saturday, but I expect that to be resolved on Sunday. I think Thomas is continuing to advance towards the top five and he will need one last good effort on Sunday to make that happen.
Thomas’ metrics suggest that a good closing round is imminent, as he currently ranks fourth in the field in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Tee to Green and 12th in Scrambling.
Cameron Smith: under 71.5 hits
Smith is another guy I’m going back to the well after I bumped into on Saturday. After his sparkling low 68 turn on Saturday, Smith found himself second at 6-under.
I think Smith continues his late push because his game has been great all around now that he’s down to average. Currently, Smith ranks #1 in the field in SG Approach the Green and second in SG Tee to Green.
Smith will partner with Scotty Scheffler on Sunday for what should be a two-man race for the Green Jacket.
Scotty Scheffler: Under 71.5 hits
Speaking of Schaeffler, I think he keeps the lead and wins the Masters. Schaeffler was simply outstanding, shooting 71 or better in each of the first three rounds.
Quite frankly, the Scheffler should go up by more strokes based on his metrics. In a dominant fashion, Schaeffler currently ranks fifth in the field in SG Around the Green, seventh in SG Around the Green, first in SG Tee to Green, and second in Scrambling.
What the number one ranked golfer in the world is doing now is simply amazing, and I’m excited to see him shut this thing down tomorrow.
John Ram: Over 72.5 hits
We get an amazing value for this number just because of its name. Currently tied for 41st at 7-over, Rahm is not in this tournament.
For the rest of the field remaining, the Ram’s metrics are horrific as it ranks 35 in SG: Around-the-Green, 38 in SG Tee-to-Green and 45 in Scrambling. Ram scored 73 or worse in two of the first three rounds, and I don’t see him getting much better on Sunday after 77 on a brutal Saturday.
Rory McIlroy: Under 10 Fairways Hit
While I really think McIlroy will make a braver push on Sunday, I don’t think it will be because of his driver. The McIlroy driver hasn’t done him justice in either of the last two rounds because he didn’t hit more than 10 lanes on a Friday or Saturday.
For the championship, McIlroy ranked 31st among the remaining areas in driving accuracy. If we get another stormy day, forecasts suggest, I’ll be shocked if McIlroy hits 10 or more ways.
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